All 78 D1 programs ranked by total expected points · Placement + advancement model · Year-over-year vs. 2026 actual scores
#1 Projected
Big Ten
136exp. pts
2026 actual: 182-46
10 ranked starters · 4 returning AAs
Luke Lilledahl 125lb · 1stJosh Barr 197lb · 1stRocco Welsh 184lb · 2ndMarcus Blaze 133lb · 4th
#2 Projected
Big 12
98exp. pts
2026 actual: 131-33
9 ranked starters · 5 returning AAs
Jax Forrest 133lb · 1stSergio Vega 141lb · 1stLandon Robideau 157lb · 1stCody Merrill 197lb · 2ndZack Ryder 184lb · 8th
#3 Projected
Big Ten
63exp. pts
2026 actual: 101-38
7 ranked starters · 2 returning AAs
Christopher Minto 174lb · 2ndCamden McDanel 197lb · 5th
#4 Projected
Big Ten
52exp. pts
2026 actual: 93-41
9 ranked starters · 4 returning AAs
Ben Kueter 285lb · 5thRyder Block 149lb · 6thAngelo Ferrari 184lb · 6thGabe Arnold 197lb · 7th
Conference:
| Rank | Program | Ranked | AAs | 2027 Projected | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penn StateBig Ten | 10/10 | 4 | 136.0 | |
| 2 | Oklahoma StateBig 12 | 9/10 | 5 | 98.4 | |
| 3 | NebraskaBig Ten | 7/10 | 2 | 63.0 | |
| 4 | IowaBig Ten | 9/10 | 4 | 51.6 | |
| 5 | 9/10 | 1 | 45.8 | ||
| 6 | MissouriBig 12 | 9/10 | 1 | 43.5 | |
| 7 | Ohio StateBig Ten | 9/10 | 2 | 43.3 | |
| 8 | MinnesotaBig Ten | 8/10 | 1 | 39.2 | |
| 9 | CornellEIWA | 4/10 | — | 37.1 | |
| 10 | Little RockSoCon | 3/10 | — | 32.8 | |
| 11 | MichiganBig Ten | 5/10 | 2 | 29.9 | |
| 12 | WyomingMountain West | 4/10 | 2 | 28.8 | |
| 13 | LehighEIWA | 6/10 | 1 | 25.4 | |
| 14 | Arizona StateBig 12 | 6/10 | 1 | 24.5 | |
| 15 | StanfordPac-12 | 7/10 | 3 | 24.5 | |
| 16 | IllinoisBig Ten | 5/10 | 1 | 18.1 | |
| 17 | Iowa StateBig 12 | 7/10 | — | 17.0 | |
| 18 | Northern IowaMVFC | 5/10 | — | 14.1 | |
| 19 | Air ForceSoCon | 2/10 | 1 | 13.6 | |
| 20 | PurdueBig Ten | 4/10 | — | 12.5 | |
| 21 | PittsburghACC | 9/10 | — | 11.6 | |
| 22 | NC StateACC | 7/10 | — | 11.4 | |
| 23 | NavyPatriot | 5/10 | — | 10.7 | |
| 24 | West VirginiaBig 12 | 7/10 | 1 | 10.5 | |
| 25 | 8/10 | — | 9.8 | ||
| 26 | WisconsinBig Ten | 3/10 | — | 9.6 | |
| 27 | AmericanMAC | 2/10 | — | 6.6 | |
| 28 | MarylandBig Ten | 3/10 | 1 | 5.9 | |
| 29 | PrincetonEIWA | 6/10 | 1 | 5.7 | |
| 30 | PennsylvaniaEIWA | 4/10 | — | 5.1 | |
| 31 | RutgersBig Ten | 6/10 | — | 4.8 | |
| 32 | 6/10 | — | 3.6 | ||
| 33 | IndianaBig Ten | 5/10 | — | 2.8 | |
| 34 | BucknellEIWA | 3/10 | — | 2.7 | |
| 35 | OklahomaBig 12 | 6/10 | — | 2.5 | |
| 36 | ColumbiaEIWA | 5/10 | — | 2.4 | |
| 37 | Cal PolyPac-12 | 4/10 | — | 2.0 | |
| 38 | 1/10 | — | 1.8 | ||
| 39 | Army West PointEIWA | 5/10 | — | 1.5 | |
| 40 | Oregon StatePac-12 | 3/10 | — | 1.4 | |
| 41 | Gardner-WebbSoCon | 1/10 | — | 1.3 | |
| 42 | BinghamtonEIWA | 2/10 | — | 0.9 | |
| 43 | VirginiaACC | 4/10 | — | 0.8 | |
| 44 | BrownEIWA | 2/10 | — | 0.7 | |
| 45 | ChattanoogaSoCon | 3/10 | — | 0.7 | |
| 46 | DrexelCAA | 2/10 | — | 0.7 | |
| 47 | Lock HavenMAC | 2/10 | — | 0.7 | |
| 48 | RiderMAC | 2/10 | — | 0.7 | |
| 49 | Appalachian StateSoCon | 2/10 | — | 0.5 | |
| 50 | George MasonMAC | 2/10 | — | 0.5 | |
| 51 | 2/10 | — | 0.5 | ||
| 52 | Utah ValleyBig 12 | 3/10 | — | 0.4 | |
| 53 | NorthwesternBig Ten | 3/10 | — | 0.3 | |
| 54 | Michigan StateBig Ten | 2/10 | — | 0.2 | |
| 55 | 1/10 | — | 0.1 | ||
| 56 | DukeACC | 1/10 | — | 0.1 | |
| 57 | EdinboroMAC | 1/10 | — | 0.1 | |
| 58 | Kent StateMAC | 1/10 | — | 0.1 | |
| 59 | OhioMAC | 1/10 | — | 0.1 | |
| 60 | 1/10 | — | 0.1 | ||
| 61 | BloomsburgMAC | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 62 | BuffaloMAC | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 63 | CampbellSoCon | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 64 | ClarionMAC | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 65 | CSU BakersfieldBig 12 | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 66 | DavidsonSoCon | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 67 | 0/10 | — | — | ||
| 68 | HarvardEIWA | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 69 | HofstraCAA | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 70 | LIUMAC | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 71 | MercyhurstMAC | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 72 | Morgan StateMEAC | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 73 | Northern ColoradoBig 12 | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 74 | PresbyterianSoCon | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 75 | Sacred HeartMAC | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 76 | The CitadelSoCon | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 77 | VMISoCon | 0/10 | — | — | |
| 78 | BellarmineMAC | 0/10 | — | — |
How points are calculated: Each wrestler's national ranking maps to an expected finish position, which determines their team's expected points (placement + advancement, no bonus points). A #1 ranked wrestler is projected to win (21 pts), #2 to finish 2nd (16 pts), etc. Rankings #9–#33 use historical All-American probability rates. Total team score = sum of all 10 weight classes. 2026 Actual scores are final results from the 2026 NCAA Championships in Cleveland. Δ = 2027 projected minus 2026 actual.