All 78 D1 programs ranked by total expected points ยท Placement + advancement model ยท Year-over-year vs. 2026 actual scores
#1 Projected
Big Ten
139.6exp. pts
2026 actual: 181.5-41.9
10 ranked starters ยท 4 returning AAs
Luke Lilledahl 125lb ยท 1stJosh Barr 197lb ยท 1stRocco Welsh 184lb ยท 2ndMarcus Blaze 133lb ยท 4th
#2 Projected
Big 12
108.7exp. pts
2026 actual: 131.0-22.3
10 ranked starters ยท 5 returning AAs
Jax Forrest 133lb ยท 1stSergio Vega 141lb ยท 1stLandon Robideau 157lb ยท 1stCody Merrill 197lb ยท 2ndZack Ryder 184lb ยท 8th
#3 Projected
Big Ten
71.8exp. pts
2026 actual: 100.5-28.7
7 ranked starters ยท 2 returning AAs
Christopher Minto 174lb ยท 2ndCamden McDanel 197lb ยท 5th
#4 Projected
Big Ten
62.9exp. pts
2026 actual: 92.5-29.6
10 ranked starters ยท 4 returning AAs
Ben Kueter 285lb ยท 5thRyder Block 149lb ยท 6thAngelo Ferrari 184lb ยท 6thGabe Arnold 197lb ยท 7th
Conference:
| Rank | Program | Ranked | AAs | 2027 Projected | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penn StateBig Ten | 10/10 | 4 | 139.6 | |
| 2 | Oklahoma StateBig 12 | 10/10 | 5 | 108.7 | |
| 3 | NebraskaBig Ten | 7/10 | 2 | 71.8 | |
| 4 | IowaBig Ten | 10/10 | 4 | 62.9 | |
| 5 | Ohio StateBig Ten | 8/10 | 2 | 49.6 | |
| 6 | 9/10 | 1 | 48.3 | ||
| 7 | MissouriSEC | 8/10 | 1 | 45.4 | |
| 8 | MinnesotaBig Ten | 8/10 | 1 | 42.6 | |
| 9 | CornellEIWA | 6/10 | โ | 39.7 | |
| 10 | Little RockSBC | 4/10 | โ | 38.2 | |
| 11 | MichiganBig Ten | 5/10 | 2 | 32.3 | |
| 12 | WyomingBig 12 | 6/10 | 2 | 31.1 | |
| 13 | StanfordPAC-12 | 7/10 | 3 | 29.8 | |
| 14 | LehighEIWA | 8/10 | 1 | 29.4 | |
| 15 | Arizona StateBig 12 | 7/10 | 1 | 27.4 | |
| 16 | Iowa StateBig 12 | 6/10 | โ | 22.4 | |
| 17 | Northern IowaMWCA | 6/10 | โ | 21.9 | |
| 18 | IllinoisBig Ten | 6/10 | 1 | 19.6 | |
| 19 | 9/10 | โ | 19.5 | ||
| 20 | Air ForceBig 12 | 2/10 | 1 | 16.2 | |
| 21 | NC StateACC | 8/10 | โ | 15.3 | |
| 22 | PurdueBig Ten | 4/10 | โ | 14.3 | |
| 23 | NavyEIWA | 8/10 | โ | 13.7 | |
| 24 | West VirginiaBig 12 | 8/10 | 1 | 13.0 | |
| 25 | PittsburghACC | 10/10 | โ | 12.6 | |
| 26 | PennsylvaniaEIWA | 5/10 | โ | 11.7 | |
| 27 | WisconsinBig Ten | 4/10 | โ | 11.4 | |
| 28 | RutgersBig Ten | 7/10 | โ | 8.7 | |
| 29 | PrincetonEIWA | 6/10 | 1 | 7.9 | |
| 30 | AmericanEIWA | 3/10 | โ | 6.9 | |
| 31 | MarylandBig Ten | 2/10 | 1 | 5.4 | |
| 32 | 6/10 | โ | 4.3 | ||
| 33 | BucknellPatriot | 4/10 | โ | 4.2 | |
| 34 | Cal PolyPAC-12 | 5/10 | โ | 3.8 | |
| 35 | OklahomaBig 12 | 7/10 | โ | 3.6 | |
| 36 | IndianaBig Ten | 6/10 | โ | 3.6 | |
| 37 | ColumbiaEIWA | 7/10 | โ | 3.2 | |
| 38 | Northern IllinoisIndependent | 4/10 | โ | 2.4 | |
| 39 | Oregon StatePAC-12 | 6/10 | โ | 2.3 | |
| 40 | Army West PointIndependent | 6/10 | โ | 2.2 | |
| 41 | 5/10 | โ | 2.0 | ||
| 42 | VirginiaACC | 5/10 | โ | 2.0 | |
| 43 | Gardner-WebbIndependent | 1/10 | โ | 1.8 | |
| 44 | BinghamtonIndependent | 3/10 | โ | 1.4 | |
| 45 | Lock HavenEWL | 4/10 | โ | 1.3 | |
| 46 | George MasonIndependent | 4/10 | โ | 1.2 | |
| 47 | RiderMAC | 2/10 | โ | 1.2 | |
| 48 | BrownEIWA | 2/10 | โ | 1.1 | |
| 49 | DrexelEIWA | 2/10 | โ | 1.0 | |
| 50 | ChattanoogaSoCon | 4/10 | โ | 0.9 | |
| 51 | Appalachian StateSoCon | 4/10 | โ | 0.9 | |
| 52 | Utah ValleyIndependent | 4/10 | โ | 0.9 | |
| 53 | NorthwesternBig Ten | 4/10 | โ | 0.8 | |
| 54 | Michigan StateBig Ten | 4/10 | โ | 0.7 | |
| 55 | 2/10 | โ | 0.4 | ||
| 56 | EdinboroEWL | 3/10 | โ | 0.4 | |
| 57 | Kent StateMAC | 2/10 | โ | 0.4 | |
| 58 | OhioMAC | 1/10 | โ | 0.3 | |
| 59 | SIU EdwardsvilleIndependent | 1/10 | โ | 0.3 | |
| 60 | BellarmineASUN | 2/10 | โ | 0.2 | |
| 61 | DavidsonIndependent | 2/10 | โ | 0.2 | |
| 62 | HarvardEIWA | 2/10 | โ | 0.2 | |
| 63 | BloomsburgEWL | 1/10 | โ | 0.1 | |
| 64 | BuffaloIndependent | 1/10 | โ | 0.1 | |
| 65 | CampbellSoCon | 1/10 | โ | 0.1 | |
| 66 | DukeACC | 1/10 | โ | 0.1 | |
| 67 | HofstraEIWA | 1/10 | โ | 0.1 | |
| 68 | Morgan StateIndependent | 1/10 | โ | 0.1 | |
| 69 | Northern ColoradoBig 12 | 1/10 | โ | 0.1 | |
| 70 | CSU BakersfieldIndependent | 0/10 | โ | โ | |
| 71 | ClarionEWL | 0/10 | โ | โ | |
| 72 | Franklin & MarshallIndependent | 0/10 | โ | โ | |
| 73 | LIUIndependent | 0/10 | โ | โ | |
| 74 | MercyhurstIndependent | 0/10 | โ | โ | |
| 75 | PresbyterianASUN | 0/10 | โ | โ | |
| 76 | Sacred HeartNEC | 0/10 | โ | โ | |
| 77 | The CitadelIndependent | 0/10 | โ | โ | |
| 78 | VMIIndependent | 0/10 | โ | โ |
How points are calculated: Each wrestler's national ranking maps to an expected finish position, which determines their team's expected points (placement + advancement, no bonus points). A #1 ranked wrestler is projected to win (21 pts), #2 to finish 2nd (16 pts), etc. Rankings #9โ#33 use historical All-American probability rates. Total team score = sum of all 10 weight classes. 2026 Actual scores are final results from the 2026 NCAA Championships in Cleveland. ฮ = 2027 projected minus 2026 actual.